Has the Struggle to Succeed Ghazouani Begun?
Has the Struggle to Succeed Ghazouani Begun?
By: Mohamed Abderahmane
Abdallah – Journalist
While talk of the “post-Ghazouani era” may seem premature from a constitutional perspective, the political reality in Mauritania suggests otherwise. Behind the scenes, a quiet power struggle appears to be taking shape, gradually pushing its way into the public sphere. So, what are the signs of this emerging contest? Who are the key players? And what scenarios might unfold?
1. Ghazouani: Between Silence and Continuity
So far, President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani has made no clear public statement about his political future beyond his current term. This presidential silence fuels speculation and creates a strategic vacuum that ambitious figures are eager to fill.
Is he planning to run again? Will he step aside quietly? Or is he contemplating a constitutional amendment when the timing suits him?
These questions are at the heart of growing political maneuvering within the system itself—sparking anxiety among both his supporters and opponents.
2. The Ruling Camp: Early Rivalries and Hidden Rifts
What stands out most is the intensifying competition within the ruling coalition itself. Figures close to the president—and others who have long operated in the shadows—are beginning to reveal their personal ambitions.
Some are positioning themselves as the “natural heirs” to Ghazouani’s legacy.
Others are quietly reshaping alliances, preparing for a post-Ghazouani era—whether it arrives by choice or by force.
Multiple centers of power—military, tribal, and financial—are already jockeying behind the scenes. While currently discreet, these tensions are likely to escalate as the next election cycle draws closer.
3. The Opposition: Watching and Waiting
Despite moments of reduced popular momentum, Mauritania’s opposition appears more observant and patient than before. It senses that any internal fractures in the ruling regime could open a political window long closed to it.
Yet the opposition also faces its own challenges:
A lack of a unified message
Fragmented leadership and factions
Weak grassroots mobilization amid pressing social issues
Still, it seems to be preparing quietly, waiting for the right moment to step into the fray.
4. A Replay of the 2019 Scenario?
In 2019, Ghazouani was introduced as a soft-spoken successor to former president Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, in what was marketed as a stable and seamless transition. But the current landscape looks very different:
Confidence within the system is far from settled
No figure enjoys the elite consensus Ghazouani once did
Tribal and financial rivalries are deeper and more complex
The country may be headed toward a murky transitional
